In the fast-paced world of e-commerce, where consumer behaviour shifts with the swipe of a finger and trends explode overnight, one factor can generally be relied upon—the Q4 peak period. It generally starts with Black Friday, then Cyber Monday, then Singles Day and then the run into Christmas when we take a small breath before the Boxing Day and New Year Sales.
Market predictions for Peak 2025 are at best patchy. According to research undertaken by Deloitte sales volumes will be similar to last year although there are concerns that the cost of living rises resulting in less disposable income might impact these.
One thing is certain, getting it right is vital and at ITD we have been working closely with our clients to ensure they are in the best place possible when it comes to their deliveries. We are also working closely with our carrier partners to ensure they have the capacity we need.
Forecasting: More Than Just Numbers
Forecasting is key so that we can ensure that our carriers are prepared for the volumes we are sending. It’s a tricky thing to get right but we work with our clients to assess everything from historical data, real-time market signals, marketing calendars, influencer campaigns and good old fashioned gut feel!
In the future I think that AI will play a larger role in this, analysing vast, varied data sources with stunning accuracy. These systems detect emerging demand patterns, predict regional spikes, and even adjust forecasts on the fly as new data arrives. Companies like Amazon and Alibaba have already turned this into a fine art—leveraging predictive models to prepare for shopping events months in advance, including rerouting stock, hiring thousands of temporary workers, and even pre-positioning products in forward stocking locations.
Market Changes
One area we are monitoring closely is the changes in the carrier market that have been quite considerable in 2025. Firstly, InPost acquired Yodel and then Evri merged with DHL and now ArrowXL is part of a large French Group, Jackie Perrenot.
We are aware that any form of market consolidation can reduce price competition, and the sector is certainly becoming dominated by large, consolidated companies who can exert greater influence over market dynamics, pricing, and service standards. With fewer players, service offerings can become the same, leading to less choice in terms of speed, cost, or flexibility.
But certainly, with the Evri and DHL merger, there are inevitable economies of scale with a shared infrastructure and centralised operations that should reduce costs per delivery, and generally larger networks allow for faster, more reliable deliveries, including same-day and next-day services as well as expanded coverage benefits for rural and remote areas.
Our teams have been assessing how these changes may impact the service to our clients, luckily our business model enables clients to change carrier easily, if necessary, without any penalties!
Keeping Customers Happy
The bottom line is that we need to ensure that our clients are able to maintain delivery service levels even when they are operating at scale. Customer expectations around delivery speed, cost and convenience are huge and this is often heightened during the peak season. Failure to deliver (in every sense of the word) can result in lost revenue and a damaged brand reputation that will last well past the peak season. At ITD we also provide dedicated support to handle any issues, queries or challenges should there be any.
Conclusion
A successful peak season is not just about surviving. With smart planning, agile execution, and a customer-first mindset and, of course, the right carrier management partner, this seasonal surge can become a year-round growth engine. Good Luck!